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Germany's gas storage lags seasonal average
29/08/2025
69% capacity trails decade average as post-Russian supply model prioritizes flexibility over early stockpiling
With the heating season only weeks away, Germany’s gas storage levels are raising eyebrows. At 69% of capacity in late August, inventories are well below the ten-year seasonal average of around 82% and mark the lowest level for this time of year since 2015—apart from the crisis year of 2021. Neighboring countries are in a stronger position: France and Poland are near 80%, Austria at 77%, and Belgium leads with 90%.[1] Why the shortfall, and what does this mean for the economy?
Several factors are at play. First, the economics of storage have shifted. With four floating liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals now operating in Germany, gas can be imported more flexibly throughout the year, reducing the incentive to fill storage early. Second, the complete halt of Russian pipeline flows via Ukraine since January has permanently altered Europe’s supply mix. While Europe has diversified towards importing LNG from the U.S. and Qatar and pipeline gas from Norway, competition for cargoes remains intense, particularly with Asia and now Egypt stepping up LNG imports. This keeps summer prices elevated, eroding the traditional seasonal advantage of cheap injections.
Geopolitics adds another layer of uncertainty. Hopes for a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire briefly pushed prices lower earlier this month, but fading optimism and renewed sanctions threats have reversed that trend. Benchmark European gas futures are trading near 33 euro/MWh, still above pre-crisis norms, and volatility remains high. Any disruption—such as Norway’s recent unplanned LNG outage—can quickly ripple through the market.
Germany’s gas storage levels are currently well below the 10-year August average of 82%
Sources: Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of 8/25/25
For the economy, gas storage is more than a technical metric; it’s a buffer against shocks. Low inventories increase the risk of price spikes during cold snaps, which could squeeze households and energy-intensive industries alike. “Higher energy costs feed into inflation, complicating monetary policy and weighing on growth – however, we are expecting that natural gas prices continue to fall to below 25 euro/MWh, not due to Russian pipeline supply but rather due to much lower risk premia. Reforms in the energy sector might reduce energy prices further,” says Martin Moryson, Global Head of Economics at DWS. This could support German industrial production, even though not all energy-intensive industrial production will return.
For now, diversified supply routes and robust LNG infrastructure offer some buffer, but if winter turns harsh or global LNG markets tighten further, Europe may need to outbid Asia to secure LNG cargoes—at a cost. The coming weeks will be critical in determining how secure Germany’s gas supplies are as winter returns.