Important security note: Warning of attempted fraud in the name of DWS
We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, WhatsApp groups and Mobile Apps. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.
Bond markets: shaken, not unanchored
24/04/2026
Markets are pricing more near-term inflation risk, but longer-term expectations remain comparatively calm.
One secret of James Bond is that 007 rarely declares a mission accomplished prematurely. Bond markets are not always so patient. Our Chart of the Week compares how markets price over the next few years with how they price inflation further into the future.[1] When the between longer-term and shorter-term pricing turns negative, markets are pricing more inflation risk over the next five years than over the five years after that.
That is what has happened since the Iran shock. Following the escalation of the Iran conflict, the market-implied short-term inflation expectations[2] moved up sharply. By contrast, the measure of longer-term inflation expectations stayed comparatively calm. In other words, markets appear to be marking a nearer-term energy pass-through rather than a lasting shift in the second half of the . For now, the curve looks shaken at the front end, not stirred at the long end.
How much reassurance should investors take from current market pricing? Not necessarily much, if the inflation surge of 2021–22 is any guide. Then, post-pandemic bottlenecks were already pushing costs higher before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine turned a difficult inflation backdrop into a broader shock. The front end moved first, but the mistake was to assume the shock would fade. Instead, it spread into wages, services and policy. Only later did the further-out curve adjust more meaningfully. Central bankers, unlike cinema-goers, do not enjoy cliffhangers. One challenge in a crisis is that important pre-existing trends become clear only with hindsight. Recent data suggest that the U.S. economy was in better shape than many investors realized in February. That may help explain the return of relative calm in both bond and equity markets.
As Christian Scherrmann, Chief U.S. Economist at DWS, puts it: “The front end has moved, but the further-out inflation rate has stayed comparatively calm. For now, that looks more like an energy shock than a lasting shift in inflation expectations.” So far, the longer end has not reacted in the same way. But Bond films are full of apparent turning points that prove temporary. Today’s market drama still recalls a classic Goldfinger scene: as the laser moved towards 007, the immediate threat was obvious; whether it turned fatal depended on what came next. The same is true here. The first market reaction is clear. Whether it remains contained is another question.
U.S. inflation curve: front end shaken
Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., DWS Investment GmbH as of 4/22/26
*spread between U.S. 5y5y forward inflation measure and 5y zero- inflation .
This information is subject to change at any time, based upon economic, market and other considerations and should not be construed as a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect. Alternative investments may be speculative and involve significant risks including illiquidity, heightened potential for loss and lack of transparency. Alternatives are not suitable for all clients.