CIO Archive

Investment Traffic Lights

There were clear factors behind the year-end rally which in 2019 brought one of the best returns since 1990. However, the risk of short-term setbacks has therefore become greater.

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2020 can't be expected to keep up with 2019

By: Christian Hille

2019 has been exceptional for investors thanks to receding recession fears and generous central banks. 2020 is unlikely to be as good.

The global implications of water shortages

By: Petra Pflaum

Population growth, urbanization and voracious water use bring hazards and opportunities in sectors such as agriculture and utilities.

Investment Traffic Lights

The year-end rally has already started. Everybody seems to be on board, and central banks continue to be happy to help.

Investment Traffic Lights

October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how untroubled markets can be when central banks keep serving them monetary cocktails.

Investment Traffic Lights

After a few tumultuous months, September proved relatively calm. Time to tweak some of our strategies.

Ready for sideways trading

By: Christian Hille

Central banks have pushed valuations up, leaving little upside potential. We stick to equities and hedge portfolios.

Investment Traffic Lights

In August, the bond market was bursting with records. The low-interest environment is likely to stay with us for some time. The joy of equity investors is not unspoiled, fears of recession are spreading.

Investment Traffic Lights

July has been another good month for many, though by no means all risky assets. We remain cautious and see scope for short-term disappointments.

Reduce risk, increase flexibility

We are less gloomy on the outlook than bond markets. In our view, equity markets have to correct before offering opportunities for entry.

Adjusting our 12-month targets

Central banks look set to cave in the face of bond-market pressure. We are adjusting our forecasts accordingly.

Strength through length

By: Christian Hille

The turn of the year was stormy. Longer-term thinking may calm the nerves.

Beyond the business cycle

Focusing purely on "where we are in the cycle" risks overlooking structural changes

Ready for anything

By: Christian Hille

Despite an optimistic outlook, our portfolios are ready for turbulent times.