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Our fore­casts Q1 2026

Forecasts
Macro
Equities
Fixed Income
Alternatives
Currencies

05/03/2026

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Image depicting the stock markets

Page Sum­mary

Macro

Stable cruising altitude

 

GDP growth (in %, year-on-year)

2026F

 

2027F

United States

2.3

  

2.0

Eurozone

1.3

1.3

United Kingdom

1.2

  

1.5

Japan

0.9

  

0.8

China

4.6

red arrow down

4.4

World

3.3

 red arrow down 

3.2

Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP)

2026F

 

2027F

United States

6.6

   

6.6

Eurozone

3.4

    

3.4

United Kingdom

3.6

  

3.0

Japan

2.0

   

2.5

China

8.5

   

8.4

Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year)

2026F

 

2027F

United States[1]2.6

    

2.3
Eurozone2.1

   

2.1
United Kingdom2.2

 red arrow down

2.0
Japan1.8

    

2.0
China0.8

     

0.8

Unemployment Rate (annual average)

2026F

 

2027F

United States4.6

  

4.4
Eurozone6.2

  

6.1
United Kingdom5.2

  

5.1
Japan2.5

  

2.3
China5.1

  

5.0

Benchmark rates (in %)

Current

[2]

 

Mar 27F

United States3.50-3.75

  

3.00-3.25
Eurozone2.00

 yellow arrow sideway 

2.00
United Kingdom3.75

  

3.25
Japan0.75    1.25
China3.00

  

2.80

Commodities (in dollars)

Current 

[2]

 

Mar 27F

Crude oil (Brent)70.8

red arrow down

66
Gold5,185

green arrow up

5,400

 

Equities

Seek regional and sectoral diversification

Country

Current[2]

 

Mar 2027F

Forecast

Total Return (exp.)[3]

Expected earnings growth

P/E impact

Dividend yield

United States
(S&P 500)

6,881

 green circle

7,500

10.5% 

11.9% 

-2.9% 

 1.5%

Europe
(Stoxx Europe 600)

629

green circle 

 685

12.1% 

7.0% 

1.9% 

3.2% 

Eurozone
(Euro Stoxx 50)

6,117

 green circle

 6,650

11.8%

7.5%  

1.2% 

3.1% 

Germany
(DAX)[4]

24,986

green circle

27,800

11.3% 

10.2%

-1.7%

2.7% 

United Kingdom
(FTSE 100)

10,681

green circle

11,450

10.5%

6.3% 

0.9% 

 3.3%

Switzerland
(Swiss Market Index)

13,997

green circle

14,950

9.7%

7.0% 

-0.2% 

2.9% 

Japan
(MSCI Japan Index)

2,332

 green circle

2,570

12.3% 

10.7% 

-0.5%

2.1% 

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

(USD)

1,594

 green circle

1,710

10.0% 

22.1% 

-14.7% 

2.7% 

MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index

(USD)

1,031

green circle

1,110

10.0%

24.1%

-16.5%

2.3%

F refers to our forecasts as of 02/26/26

 

 

Fixed Income

Largely directionless

 

Country

Current[5]

 

March 2027F

United States
  

 

U.S. Treasuries(2-year)3.43%green circle

3.35%

U.S. Treasuries(10-year)4.00%green circle

4.00%

U.S. municipal bonds[6]62 bpgreen circle

70 bp

U.S. insvestment- grade corporates[6]76 bpgreen circle

85 bp

U.S. high-yield corporates[6]

282 bp

green circle

325 bp

Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6]

109 bp

green circle

100 bp

Europe

 

 

 

German Bunds (2-year)

2.04%

green circle

2.00%

German Bunds (10-year)

2.69%

green circle

2.70%

UK Gilts (10-year)

4.27%

green circle

4.20%

Euro investment-grade corporates[7]

79 bp

green circle

65 bp

Euro high-yield corporates[7]

269 bp

yellow circle

280 bp

Securitized: Covered Bonds[7]

32 bp

green circle

30 bp

Italy (10-year)[7]

61 bp

green circle

60 bp

Asia- Pacific

 

 

 

Japanese government bonds (10-year)  

2.16%

yellow circle

2.40%

Asia credit

114 bp

green circle

130 bp

Global

 

 

 

Emerging-market sovereigns

251 bp

green circle

225 bp

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    
Global

 

 

 

Schwellenländer-Staatsanleihen

331 bp

green circle

360 bp

Currencies

 

Currency

Current[5]

 

Mar 2027F

EUR vs. USD1.18    1.22
USD vs. JPY156  145
EUR vs. GBP0.87  0.85
GBP vs. USD1.35  1.44
USD vs. CNY6.85  6.80

F refers to our forecasts as of 26/02/26
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points

Legend:

  • Macro data exchange rates and alternative investments: The arrows signal whether we expect to see an upward trend green arrow upa sideways trend yellow arrow sideway   or a downward trend red arrow down.
  • The signals' colors illustrate the return opportunities for long-only investors:  green circlepositive return potential for long-only investors. yellow circle limited return opportunity as well as downside risk.  red circlenegative return potential for long-only investors.