2026: The Real Es­tate Debt Su­per-Cycle

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Risk factors – Private Debt

All investments involve risk, including possible loss of principal. Private Credit, Direct Lending investments are “private” and may not be appropriate or available for retail investors in the U.S. Investments in Private Credit are subject to various risks including but not limited to market risk, general economic and market conditions, economic recession risk, inflation/deflation risk, and:

Counterparty risk – A financial institution or other counterparty that underwrites, distributes, or guarantees any private credit investments or contracts that the strategy owns or is otherwise exposed to, may decline in financial health, and become unable to honor its commitments. This could cause losses or could delay the return or delivery of collateral or other assets.

Prepayment and extension risk – When interest rates fall, issuers of high interest debt obligations may pay off the debts earlier than expected (prepayment risk), and the strategy may have to reinvest the proceeds at lower yields. When interest rates rise, issuers of lower interest debt obligations may pay off the debts later than expected (extension risk), thus keeping the strategy’s assets tied up in lower interest debt obligations. Ultimately, any unexpected behavior in interest rates could increase the volatility of the strategy’s yield and could hurt performance. Prepayments could also create capital gains tax liability in some instances.

Debt securities risk – Debt securities are subject to the risk of the issuer’s or a guarantor’s inability to meet principal and interest payments on its obligations and to price volatility.

Default risk – The issuers or guarantors of debt securities may fail to make payments or fulfil other contractual obligations.

Secured debt risk – Although secured debt generally will be secured by specific collateral, there can be no assurance that liquidation of such collateral would satisfy the borrower’s obligation in the event of non-payment of scheduled interest or principal or that such collateral could be readily liquidated.

Second lien and subordinated loans risk– Second lien loans generally are subject to similar risks as those associated with investments in senior loans, and, because they are subordinated or unsecured and lower in priority of payment to senior loans, they are subject to additional risks, including the risk that the borrower may be unable to meet scheduled payments, price volatility, illiquidity, and the inability of the originators to sell participations in such loans.

Private investment risk – Private investments are highly competitive, less transparent, and illiquid.

PIK interest risk – Loans with a payment in kind (“PIK”) interest component generally represent a significantly higher credit risk than coupon loans; may have unreliable valuations requiring continuing judgments about collectability and the value of any associated collateral; and the borrower could still default when the actual payment is due at maturity. 

Direct lending risk – The lender in privately offered debt is responsible for the expense of servicing that debt, including, taking legal actions to foreclose on any security instrument securing the debt. This may increase the risk and expense compared to syndicated or publicly offered debt. 

Interest rate risk – In general, rising interest rates in the market will negatively affect the price of the direct lending investments. Sensitivity to a change in interest rates is more pronounced and less predictable in instruments with uncertain payment (or prepayment) schedules. Central bank monetary policy, rising inflation rates, and general economic conditions may cause interest rates to rise.

Illiquid portfolio investments risk – Private credit investments generally will be long-term and highly illiquid.

Valuation risk – There is no central place or exchange for private credit investments to trade. Uncertainties in financial market conditions, unreliable reference data, lack of transparency and inconsistency of valuation models and processes may lead to inaccurate pricing and other market participants may value direct lending investments differently. 

High-yield debt risk – High yield debt securities have historically experienced greater default rates than investment grade securities and are subject to additional liquidity and volatility risk.

Reinvestment risk – During periods of declining interest rates, an issuer of debt obligations may exercise an option to redeem prior to maturity, which could result in new investments with lower-yields.

Important information

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