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Despite recent signs of de-escalation, trade uncertainty and expected higher prices appear set to take a toll on the U.S. economy.
Uncertainty and higher prices expected to take a toll on the economy.
By: Vincenzo Vedda
In our monthly Multi-Asset update we describe the translation of our CIO View into the CIO View model portfolio.
By: Maria Milina, Elke Speidel-Walz
India’s economic outlook remains attractive, and the recent market pullback creates an entry opportunity for investors
In addition to the severity of the recession, inflation will be an important factor during this phase.
By: Michael Lewis, Jay Joshi, Murray Birt, Maria Milina
Transformation guided by a northern light
Short-term high correlation with the Nasdaq should not be over-interpreted
The U.S. president's policies are forcing us to revise our growth and market forecasts downwards. Regardless of how U.S. tariff policy develops, enough confidence has already been destroyed to make consumers, investors and companies more cautious. We expect markets to remain volatile in the short term but in our core scenario anticipate declining uncertainty and positive equity returns for the 12 months to come.
The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.
New world order for trade: What Next?
Market sentiment tumbles into “panic territory” after reciprocal tariffs announcement on “Liberation Day.”
By: Maria Milina, Michael Lewis
From the margins to the mainstream
So far, Trump’s tariff threats are mainly harming sentiment. That could change quite quickly, in ways that would be hard to undo or mitigate.
The imposed tariffs by the Trump administration turned out significantly higher than initially expected
China Banks: Signs of Bottoming Out
