Important security note: Warning of attempted fraud in the name of DWS
We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, WhatsApp groups and Mobile Apps. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.
19/03/2025
Weekly Edition
Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
From President Trump’s trade tariff-induced “transition” to Fed Chair Powell’s “transitory,” investors and decision-makers have had a lot of “T” to drink. These concerns continued to dominate discussions and capital allocation decisions as U.S. reciprocal tariffs are slated to be enacted on April 2nd. The U.S. might have one of the loudest voices on the trade issue but it isn’t the only one. A chorus of nations have been pushing back against the manufacturing might of China and the dumping of its goods in their domestic markets. China’s government isn’t deaf to the concerns raised by trading partners and has worked to soothe relations by sharing, or promising to share, the “development benefits with its neighbors,” and has kept its tariffs low on less well-off countries. Geopolitical events also reignited during the period as the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas expired, after which Israeli forces launched air strikes and ground incursions in Gaza once again. The U.S. struck Houthi targets in Yemen, another of Iran’s proxies in the region. In Eastern Europe, a move facilitated by U.S. President Trump, Ukraine and Russia took initial steps towards a ceasefire by mutually agreeing to halt attacks on energy infrastructure.
Global equity markets climbed off the year-to-date low touched on March 13th, after declining nearly 8%. U.S. equities went through a full correction with the S&P 500 falling 10% in March. It remains to be seen whether this was just a temporary correction or if equities will take another step lower. Energy companies led the rebound in global equities, followed by Financials and Materials. Conversely, the Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Consumer Staples sectors lagged the broader market despite posting positive returns. In this environment the Real Asset Index outpaced Global Equities, with leadership from Natural Resource Equities and Global Infrastructure Securities. Conversely, U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), Global Real Estate securities, and Commodity Futures trailed the Real Asset Index, despite positive performance. Among other indicators we track, the VIX, an index of expected S&P volatility, fell 18% to 19.9. This move occurred ahead of the March 21st “triple-witching” day when trillions of dollars in equity-related contracts expire. The nominal yield curve flattened, especially in the long-end, 10- & 30-year segment. Inflation break-evens fell slightly, down 2 basis points (bps) for the 5-year and 1 bp for the 10-year segment. Credit spreads, the yield premium over sovereign base rates, widened 9 bps for below-investment grade credits (high yield) and tightened 4 bps for investment-grade (IG) spreads. For the period, the dollar was slightly weaker, ending at 103.43 as measured by the DXY index. Oil prices weakened to $67.16 per barrel, and gold prices continued to rise, hitting $3,048 per ounce.[1]
Why it matters: Facing disruption in financial markets, trade flows, and corporate revenues, investors need to stay on their toes to factor in new information and potential outcomes. We continue to monitor the hard data, but also investor expectations and sentiment, as views and beliefs can translate into actual price activity, which can become actionable and is eventually revealed in the hard data.
Macro Dive: We will review central bank decisions and metrics to watch in the U.S.
Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we will look at retailers’ impact on REITs, the need for infrastructure equipment, and copper dynamics in anticipation of trade tariffs.