Important security note: Warning of attempted fraud in the name of DWS
We have detected that fraudulent individuals are misusing the "DWS" trademark and the names of DWS employees on the internet and social media. These fraudsters are operating fake websites, Facebook pages, and WhatsApp groups. Please be aware that DWS does not have any Facebook Ambassador profiles or WhatsApp chats. If you receive any unexpected calls, messages, or emails claiming to be from DWS, exercise caution and do not make any payments or disclose personal information. We encourage you to report any suspicious activity to info@dws.com, including any relevant documents and the original fraudulent email. Additionally, if you believe you have been a victim of fraud, please notify your local authorities and take steps to protect yourself.
23/04/2025
In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.
GDP growth (in %, year-on-year) | 2025F | 2026F | |
| United States | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
| Eurozone | 0.8 | 1.3 | |
| United Kingdom | 0.9 | 1.4 | |
| Japan | 0.9 | 0.7 | |
| China | 4.0 | 3.8 | |
| World | 2.8 | 2.9 | |
Fiscal deficit (in % of GDP) | 2025F | 2026F | |
| United States | 6.8 | 6.5 | |
| Eurozone | 3.4 | 4.0 | |
| United Kingdom | 3.8 | 4.1 | |
| Japan | 3.5 | 3.0 | |
| China | 10.0 | 8.0 | |
Consumer price inflation (in %, year-on-year) | 2025F | 2026F | |
| United States[1] | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
| Eurozone | 2.1 | 2.0 | |
| United Kingdom | 3.0 | 2.2 | |
| Japan | 2.0 | 2.0 | |
| China | 0.5 | 1.2 | |
Unemployment Rate (annual average) | 2025F | 2026F | |
| United States | 4.4 | 4.7 | |
| Eurozone | 6.3 |  | 6.3 |
| United Kingdom | 4.4 | | 4.4 |
| Japan | 2.4 | | 2.4 |
| China | 5.3 | 5.1 | |
Benchmark rates (in %) | Current[2] | March 26F | |
| United States | 4.25-4.50 | 3.50-3.75 | |
| Eurozone | 2.25 | 1.75 | |
| United Kingdom | 4.50 | 3.75 | |
| Japan | 0.50 |  | 0.75 |
| China | 3.10 | 2.60 | |
Commodities (in dollars) | Current [2] | March 26F | |
| Crude oil (Brent) | 66.1 | 63 | |
| Gold | 3,295 | 3,600 | |
| Copper (LME) | 9,383 | 9,500 | |
| Carbon | 66 | 75 |
Current[3] | March 2026FForecast | Total Return (exp.)[4] | Expected earnings growth | P/E impact | Dividend yield | ||
United States | 5,376 |  | 5,800 | 9.0% | 7.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% |
Europe | 517 | | 550 | 10.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% |
Eurozone | 5,099 | | 5,400 | 9.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.3% |
Germany | 21,962 | | 23,500 | 7.0% | 12.9% | -8.8% | 2.9% |
United Kingdom | 8,403 | | 8,700 | 7.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 3.8% |
Switzerland | 11,809 | | 12,500 | 9.1% | 4.8% | 1.1% | 3.3% |
Japan | 1,570 | | 1,690 | 10.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
MSCI Emerging Markets Index (USD) | 1,096 | | 1,160 | 9.0% | 8.3% | -2.4% | 3.1% |
MSCI AC Asia ex Japan Index (USD) | 706 | | 750 | 9.1% | 7.5% | -1.3% | 2.9% |
F refers to our forecasts as of 4/23/25
Current[2] | March 2026F | ||
United States | |||
| U.S. Treasuries(10-year) | 4.38% | | 4.30% |
| U.S. municipal bonds[6] | 79 bp | | 85 bp |
| U.S. insvestment- grade corporates[6] | 99 bp | | 110 bp |
| U.S. high-yield corporates[6] | 371 bp | | 450 bp |
| Securitized: mortgage-backed securities[6] | 158 bp | | 125 bp |
Europe |
| ||
| German Bunds (10-year) | 2.50% |  | 2.50% |
| UK Gilts (10-year) | 4.55% | | 4.00% |
| Euro investment-grade corporates[7] | 111 bp | | 90 bp |
| Euro high-yield corporates[7] | 401 bp | | 400 bp |
| Securitized: Covered Bonds[7] | 54 bp | | 50 bp |
| Italy (10-year)[7] | 113 bp | | 110 bp |
Asia- Pacific |
|
| |
| Japanese government bonds (10-year) | 1.34% |  | 1.70% |
| Asia credit | 214 bp | | 145 bp |
Global |
|
| |
| Emerging-market sovereigns | 354 bp | | 410 bp |
Current[2] | March 2026F | ||
| EUR vs. USD | 1.13 | | 1.18 |
| USD vs. JPY | 143 |  | 135 |
| EUR vs. GBP | 0.86 | | 0.84 |
| GBP vs. USD | 1.33 | | 1.40 |
| USD vs. CNY | 7.29 | | 7.50 |
F refers to our forecasts as of 4/23/25
LME = London Metal Exchange
bp = basis points
a sideways trend or a downward trend .positive return potential for long-only investors. limited return opportunity as well as downside risk. negative return potential for long-only investors.core rate, personal consumption expenditure as end of Dec 2025/Dec 2026 in % (no average as for the other figures in the table)
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. as of 4/23/25
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., FactSet Research Systems Inc. as of 4/23/25
Expected total return includes interest, dividends and capital gains where applicable
Total-return index (includes dividends)
Spread over U.S. Treasuries
Spread over German Bunds
Index returns do not reflect fees or expenses, and it is not possible to invest directly in an index. All opinions and claims are based upon data on 4/23/25 and may not come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based upon economic, market and other considerations and should not be construed as a recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. Forecasts are based on assumptions, estimates, opinions and hypothetical models that may prove to be incorrect. Alternative investments may be speculative and involve significant risks including illiquidity, heightened potential for loss and lack of transparency. Alternatives are not suitable for all clients. DWS Investment GmbH.
DWS is the brand name of DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA and its subsidiaries under which they do business. The DWS legal entities offering products or services are specified in the relevant documentation. DWS, through DWS Group GmbH & Co. KGaA, its affiliated companies and its officers and employees (collectively “DWS”) are communicating this document in good faith and on the following basis.
This document is for information/discussion purposes only and does not constitute an offer, recommendation or solicitation to conclude a transaction and should not be treated as investment advice This document is intended to be a marketing communication, not a financial analysis. Accordingly, it may not comply with legal obligations requiring the impartiality of financial analysis or prohibiting trading prior to the publication of a financial analysis.
This document contains forward looking statements. Forward looking statements include, but are not limited to assumptions, estimates, projections, opinions, models and hypothetical performance analysis. No representation or warranty is made by DWS as to the reasonableness or completeness of such forward looking statements. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The information contained in this document is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. DWS does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or fairness of such information. All third party data is copyrighted by and proprietary to the provider. DWS has no obligation to update, modify or amend this document or to otherwise notify the recipient in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or subsequently becomes inaccurate. Investments are subject to various risks. Detailed information on risks is contained in the relevant offering documents. No liability for any error or omission is accepted by DWS. Opinions and estimates may be changed without notice and involve a number of assumptions which may not prove valid.
DWS does not give taxation or legal advice. This document may not be reproduced or circulated without DWS’s written authority. This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction, including the United States, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject DWS to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction not currently met within such jurisdiction. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to inform themselves of, and to observe, such restrictions.
© 2024 DWS Investment GmbH
Issued in the UK by DWS Investments UK Limited which is authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority.
© 2024 DWS Investments UK Limited
In Hong Kong, this document is issued by DWS Investments Hong Kong Limited. The content of this document has not been reviewed by the Securities and Futures Commission.
© 2024 DWS Investments Hong Kong Limited
In Singapore, this document is issued by DWS Investments Singapore Limited. The content of this document has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
© 2024 DWS Investments Singapore Limited
In Australia, this document is issued by DWS Investments Australia Limited (ABN: 52 074 599 401) (AFSL 499640). The content of this document has not been reviewed by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
© 2024 DWS Investments Australia Limited
For institutional / professional investors in Taiwan:
This document is distributed to professional investors only and not others. Investing involves risk. The value of an investment and the income from it will fluctuate and investors may not get back the principal invested. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This is a marketing communication. It is for informational purposes only. This document does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security and shall not be deemed an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The views and opinions expressed herein, which are subject to change without notice, are those of the issuer or its affiliated companies at the time of publication. Certain data used are derived from various sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy or completeness of the data is not guaranteed and no liability is assumed for any direct or consequential losses arising from their use. The duplication, publication, extraction or transmission of the contents, irrespective of the form, is not permitted.
Financial Professional
Individual Investor
Institutional Investor
The content of this website (the “Website”) is intended exclusively for persons who are resident in United Kingdom or who access this website from United Kingdom.
U.S. Persons are not eligible to invest in shares of such investment funds which are stated on the following websites. By clicking on “I accept”, I confirm that I am not a citizen of the United States, that neither my place of residence nor place of business is in the United States and especially I am not a person that is a “U.S. Person” as such term is defined under Regulation S of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933.
The use of this Website is subject to (i) the laws of England and Wales and (ii) the Terms of Use of this Website. Please read the Terms of Use carefully.
By entering this Website, you agree to accept the Terms of Use of this Website.
