When not to fuss over wage growth

Recent strong wage growth among lowly paid, young job switchers may reflect them moving into potentially more productive jobs. Such gains need not be inflationary.

Europe has overcome its energy crisis

More secure supply brings gas prices back down

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | February 25, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

This coming week, there will be a keen global focus on the U.S. House of Representatives for two big reasons – March 1 government shutdown deadline and discussion on aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.

Italian government bonds beat Bunds

The BTP/Bund spread falls impressively

Americas CIO View

By: David Bianco

The end of macro?: Some companies are so big they are the macro

India – a poorly kept secret

By: Björn Jesch

India's demographic advantages are well known. The government's capex offensive, expanding exports and the bond market’s opening are now also generating momentum for stock markets.

Tales of the unexpected

Donald Trump’s electoral performance in both 2016 and 2020 suggests that returning to the White House is likely to prove an uphill struggle.

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | February 12, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Jordanian King Abdullah will meet with President Biden, Indonesia holds presidential elections, Munich Security Conference is to be held and big U.S. regulatory events.

Covered bonds start the year strong

In our view, German covered bonds offer an attractive yield pick-up over German government bonds

Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | February 05, 2024

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

As tensions and military action in Yemen and the South Sea continue to escalate, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken returns to the region.

Investment Traffic Lights

By: Björn Jesch

Our monthly market analysis and positioning

U.S. economic growth and fiscal balances

Amidst the excitement in markets about the strong growth performance of the U.S. economy, some nuance seems in order.

Danger of rising yields if Trump is re-elected?

Should investors in U.S. government bonds be worried about what a Trump election win would mean for their asset class? We see good reasons to expect yields to rise.

Making sense of commodity price forecasts

Geopolitical risk adds yet another layer of complexity to understanding commodity prices. In terms of forecast accuracy, though, it’s all about the vol.

U.S. Economic Outlook

By: Christian Scherrmann

Next stop lower rates? Not so fast, hopefully!