Insights

U.S. productivity is improving. In aggregate economic data, however, the AI dividend remains easier to imagine than to measure.

Critical minerals are increasingly playing a key role in the development of electromobility, renewable energy and digitalization – and thus in shaping future developments.

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

Micro beats macro. The Iran war and inflation are being overshadowed in the markets by the AI boom, where profits are no longer artificial but real. Markets are bifurcated in many ways.

Rising energy prices weigh on growth and inflation, while AI-driven investment continues to support selected segments and drive increasing divergence across markets.

Substantial upward revisions in capex reflect the AI infrastructure boom – early signs of increasing monetization are becoming visible