Role reversal

How Italy and France appear to be switching positions when it comes to the respective riskiness of their government debt.

Regime change of a different kind

Venezuela’s turmoil offers a test case of how oil and metals shocks can ripple through inflation and rates, as the energy transition rewrites old market rules.

Recession odds remain elevated

Uncertainty and higher prices expected to take a toll on the economy.

Rational Exuberance

2026 may be a good year for risky assets

Q3 2026 Outlook: Central & Eastern Europe Markets

By: Sebastian Kahlfeld

The investment environment across emerging markets remains dominated by a limited number of global themes, most notably artificial intelligence infrastructure investment and defense spending.

Q2 2026 Outlook: Central & Eastern Europe Markets

By: Sebastian Kahlfeld

Global emerging markets remain volatile, while Emerging Europe appears relatively resilient due to integration with Western Europe, EU funding, and nearshoring tailwinds amid ongoing geopolitical and valuation related risks.

Productivity’s hidden warning

U.S. productivity is rising, but workers’ pay is not keeping up with inflation. That makes the latest data more difficult to read.

Oil shocks don’t bite like they used to

Decades of efficiency and electrification have defanged a once-feared macro risk — even as Middle East tensions keep markets jumpy.

Not an inflation emergency

The Fed raises rates by 25 basis points to reinforce its inflation-fighting credibility

No massive sell-off of U.S. securities

Foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. assets in April, but only to a very small extent

Markets between Energy shock and AI boom

Rising energy prices weigh on growth and inflation, while AI-driven investment continues to support selected segments and drive increasing divergence across markets.

Market backdrop: Good, with “ifs” and “buts”

Benign, for now: Our forecasts for the next 12 months

Investment Traffic Lights

The monthly Investment Traffic Lights provide a detailed market analysis and our view on developments in the main asset classes. 

Inflation risks on the horizon

Past El Niño episodes show agricultural prices can react late and unevenly. Nevertheless, the current risks need to be taken seriously.

Inflation expectations management

Not so long ago, Eurozone inflation was almost too dull to mention. Nowadays, the opposite risk looms: rising factory-price expectations deserve attention – but not panic.