Tequila sunrise

Market backdrop: Good, with “ifs” and “buts”

Benign, for now: Our forecasts for the next 12 months

U.S. real yields: Is the trend turning downward?

Whether or not there will be a reversal in the trend depends on the development of long-term inflation and whether the Federal Reserve manages to maintain its credibility

No massive sell-off of U.S. securities

Foreign investors reduced their holdings of U.S. assets in April, but only to a very small extent

Japanese bond yields have risen sharply

We believe that fears of JGB weakness spreading to other government bonds appear to be exaggerated.

Still constructive

Cautiously optimistic: Our forecasts for the next 12 months