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6/11/2025
Weekly Edition
Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Global equity markets continued their ascent in June as May’s non-farm payrolls, reported June 6th, met expectations. Although the internals of the report were relatively weak, the headline was enough to keep market optimism afloat. Additionally, favorable news emerged from U.S. and China trade talks in London as the U.S. made concessions including potentially loosening student visa allowances in order to restart the flow of rare earth exports from China. U.S. treasury bond investors, wary about rising debt loads, cast aside those concerns during successful 10-year and 30-year treasury bond auctions this week, providing a collective sigh of relief in sovereign debt markets. The auctions may have benefited from tensions in the Middle East as chatter circulated that Israel could be planning a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, contributing to the rise in risk premium for energy prices.[1]
Note: After our review period, Israel did indeed launch an attack on Iran dubbed Operation Rising Lion; focused on Iran’s senior military leadership and uranium enrichment capabilities. At the time of writing WTI and Brent have risen +8% and +7.5% percent, respectively. Israel has indicated they will continue this operation over the coming days and therefore the extent and duration of market impact will be dictated by Iran’s response. Iran could attempt to “internationalize” this conflict by attacking energy infrastructure throughout the Middle East, therefore we will provide an update when we have more clarity on probable outcomes.
The Real Asset Index trailed broader Global Equities, which benefitted from strength in the Energy, Healthcare, Communications, and Technology sectors. Within Real Assets, Natural Resource Equities outperformed the most, followed by Global Real Estate and Commodities. Conversely, Global Infrastructure and U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) underperformed the Real Asset Index by posting negative performance. Oil prices rose 8.4% to $68.15, supporting energy outperformance in the commodity and natural resource equity segments. Among other indicators we track, the VIX, an index that measures the expected volatility of U.S. stocks, ended the period lower by 2% at 17.3. Credit spreads were tighter by three basis points (bps) for investment grade and seven bps for the high yield segment. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly, down to 98.6, as measured by the DXY Index. Gold prices cooled -0.5% to $3,355 per ounce.[1]
Why it matters: We continue to monitor economic data, where tariff-related inflation has yet to be realized while employment data has continued to soften. We can’t help but wonder whether the Fed has been so focused on its inflation mandate that it is underappreciating the nascent weakness in employment.
This week we will review the latest data from the U.S. and Europe.
Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we look at real estate transactions, the potential for the World Bank to fund nuclear projects again, and the spreading of tariffs.