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5/31/2025
Monthly Edition
John Vojticek
Head of Liquid Real Assets, DWS
Justin Miller
Portfolio Specialist, Liquid Real Assets
Edward O'Donnell
Senior Product Specialist, Liquid Real Assets
Chart
Index definitions: Global Real Estate = FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index; Global Infrastructure = Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; Natural Resource Equities = S&P Global Natural Resources Index; Commodity Futures = Bloomberg Commodity Index; TIPS = Barclays US TIPS Index; Global Equities = MSCI World Index; Real Assets Index = 30% FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Developed Index, 30% Dow Jones Brookfield Global Infrastructure Index; 15% S&P Global Natural Resources Index; 15% Bloomberg Commodity Index, 10% Barclays TIPS Index. Source: Bloomberg, DWS. Past performance is not indicative of future results. It is not possible to invest directly in an index.
Global equity markets cheered as tariff temperatures were lowered. The rebound cured April’s damage to bring many indices into positive territory year-to-date. Cooler heads prevailed as the previous tariff levels created an effective embargo and risked bringing global growth to its knees. The extent of the damage to the economy remains to be seen and will likely be felt in the upcoming months; for now, the market is willing to look through this near-term disruption. Corporate earnings held in well for the first quarter; however, many earnings outlooks and growth expectations for the rest of 2025 were reduced due to uncertainty. The President’s trade agenda was dealt setbacks by a pair of court rulings that blocked his tariff declarations. The Court of International Trade blocked the global tariffs enacted under the IEEPA powers (International Emergency Economic Powers Act). A second federal judge also declared some of the tariffs unlawful but was more narrowly focused on a family-owned business that brought the suit. The administration has appealed both decisions. Rest assured; the Trump administration has other avenues to execute its tariff policy if the appeals are not successful. Section 232, 301, and 122 powers can be used to enact tariffs but can take longer to implement and in the case of Section 122, it would limit the scope and only have a 150-day duration. The administration could also go through Congress to enact tariffs, but that approach would divert time and attention away from other legislative priorities such as the tax bill and judicial nominations. Regardless of the tariff flavor, investors should continue to include them in their risk management calculus.
Broader Global Equities outpaced the Real Asset Index as the Technology, Industrials, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary sectors outperformed, while the Health Care sector lagged with negative performance. Within the Real Asset sectors, Natural Resource Equities and Global Real Estate outperformed, while TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) and Commodity Futures trailed. Global Infrastructure lagged the Real Asset Index as well, despite posting positive performance. Global Real Estate Securities were led by Canada, Australia, the UK, and Europe ex-UK, while Japan and the U.S. were laggards. Natural Resource Equities were led by companies in the Agriculture sector, while those in the Metals & Mining and Energy segments underperformed. The Infrastructure sector was led by Latin American Airports, Americas Rail, and Europe Transport, while the Communications segments in the Americas and Europe underperformed. In Commodities, Livestock and Industrial Metals led, while the Agriculture segment fell short.
Among other indicators we track, credit spreads tightened across the credit spectrum with investment-grade (IG) spreads tightening 15 bps (basis points) and high-yield (HY) spreads tightening 66 bps. For the month, the dollar was slightly weaker, as measured by the DXY index. Oil prices rose 5.5% to $60.79 per barrel. Gold prices were roughly unchanged, landing slightly higher at $3,289.25 per ounce. The VIX, an index of expected S&P volatility, fell 6% to end the month at 18.6. Inflation breakevens rose as 5-year yields climbed 8 bps to 2.39% and the 10-year segment rose 9 bps to 2.33%. Nominal yields rose across the maturity spectrum, with the 2-year climbing the highest by almost 30 bps, while the rest of the curve rose around 25 bps.[1]
Why it matters: We continue to monitor economic data, as well as sentiment indicators, as they could eventually feed through to the hard data. We will see if sentiment data will catch back up to hard data instead of hard data falling to catch sentiment.
This week we will review the latest U.S. sentiment and orders information, as well as the latest global indicators.
Real Assets, Real Insights: This week we look at first quarter commercial real estate transactions, stricter energy product export rules for the U.S., and the wildfire threat to Canadian oil production.
Source: Bloomberg, as of May 31, 2025
Source: Institute of Supply Management and S&P Global, as of June 5, 2025
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, as of June 3, 2025
Source: Eurostate, as of June 3, 2025
Source: European Central Bank, as of June 5, 2025
Source: GreenStreet, as of June 2, 2025.
Source: Bloomberg, as of June 4, 2025.
Any mentions of specific properties or securities are for illustrative purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation.
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R-070495-4 (7/25)
