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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | January 19, 2025

1/19/2025

Donald Trump returns to power, the World Economic Forum convenes in Davos, and Rubio calls a meeting of the Quad.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

Donald Trump returns to power
Rubio calls a meeting of the Quad
World Economic Forum convenes in Davos
Trump and China
Global economic radar screen

Donald Trump returns to power

January 20, 2025 is a historic day in the United States as Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th President of the United States for the second time. The world seems to be holding its collective breath, waiting to see what President Trump will do right out of the box after being sworn in. At this point in time, we know he will sign and issue more than 100 Executive Orders that will cover issues ranging from moving on his promised wide-ranging tariff regime, declaring a state of emergency on the US-Mexican border, loosening oil and gas permitting immediately, giving a 90-day extension to TikTok from being forced to shut down, to moving on his vow to begin rounding up illegal aliens and deporting them.

Rubio calls a meeting of the Quad

The incoming Trump Administration is not wasting any time on the national security and geopolitical front, with incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who is expected to be confirmed by the Senate and sworn into office on Monday) convening a meeting Tuesday of the Quad – the foreign ministers of Japan, Australia, India, and the U.S. – in Washington to talk about next steps for the mutual security group. This is seen as a strongly positive signal by the incoming Trump Administration that they intend to maintain the Biden security policies in the Indo-Pacific and ramp it up.

Trump and China

We also note that Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. The call reportedly covered the future of TikTok, trade, and Fentanyl trafficking. We also hear Trump telling aides that he wants to visit China for meetings with Xi this year.

World Economic Forum convenes in Davos

Also happening this week is the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The mega-event runs for four days (January 20 – 24), and this year, a large number of foreign leaders will be speaking (and President Trump will address the group virtually).

Global economic radar screen

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, the big reports markets are watching are going to be in Asia. The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates on Friday, while China will be setting its Loan Prime Rate, although the market consensus at this point is that it will remain unchanged.

In Europe, the Eurogroup (all EU finance ministers plus European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde) will meet to discuss global and EU economic conditions. Also, in the EU this week, Germany and France released manufacturing reports, while the UK labor market report is out on Tuesday.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | January 19, 2025

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