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3/2/2025
It is not often you can write that the coming week is likely to be truly historic, a true crossroads of where the world will go. This appears to be one of those weeks.
Francis (Frank) J. Kelly
Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS
It is not often you can write that the coming week is likely to be truly historic, a true crossroads of where the world will go. This appears to be one of those weeks.
Russia-Ukraine at an inflection point
Following the bizarre blow-up in the White House Oval Office between President Trump, Vice President Vance, and Ukrainian President Zelensky, the future of Ukraine’s freedom lies in the balance and Europe looks to be poised to begin pursuing their own security arrangements out of fear of being abandoned by the U.S. after 80 years of mutual security arrangements.
The EU meets to discuss its security future
Today (Sunday) saw British Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosting a summit in London where he called for a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine.[1] Both the UK and France committed to sending peacekeeping troops to help in the efforts to reach a cease-fire. Later this week, there will be a Special European Council meeting in Brussels to discuss the situation in Ukraine and what the EU should do as President Trump continues to attack President Zelensky and suggest the U.S. will stop militarily supporting Ukraine. As European Council President António Costa said, “We are living in a defining moment for Ukraine and European security."[2] [3]
At the time of this writing, President Zelensky has told reporters he is still ready to sign a U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal despite the shouting match with President Trump and being kicked out of the White House. But what is not clear is how – or even if – Trump and Zelensky can patch up their relationship to even sign the deal.[4]
China’s People’s Political Consultative Conference and National People’s Congress meet
Meanwhile, China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) and China’s People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) come together to meet in Beijing this week. The meetings will offer important insights into where Beijing will steer the economy and how it might deal with President Trump and forthcoming tariffs. The meetings will not be easy for Chinese leaders to successfully manage market expectations of economic policy.
Trump’s Canada/Mexico/China tariffs go into effect
The new U.S. tariffs on China – now set at 20% by President Trump – are scheduled to go into effect this coming Saturday. Canada and Mexico are also set to get hit with 25% tariffs by President Trump. We would note that Trump indicated over the weekend he has ordered a new probe of Canada’s lumber exports to the U.S., suggesting he will place new tariffs on that sector, too. Up to 30 percent of softwood lumber used to build houses in the U.S. comes from Canada. And a large percentage of gypsum (used for drywall) used in U.S. housing comes from Canada.[5]
We are likely to learn more about President Trump’s tariff agenda when he addresses a Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday. The Annual State of the Union speech will offer Trump an opportunity to also lay out more details of his domestic and foreign policy agenda for the year. He is expected to make a strong push for his signature tax and budget Reconciliation package currently being put together in the House of Representatives.
Also this week, Canada’s Liberal Party will choose a new leader on Sunday to replace incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
Global economic radar screen
Turning to the global economic radar screen:
Europe – The big event of the week is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting to decide interest rates Thursday. Markets are expecting another likely 25 basis points.
Asia – Markets are looking at major data releases this week out of Asia. China releases official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for February as well as trade data while the People’s Congress is being held.
S. – Bringing it back to the U.S., the Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on Wednesday as well as theInstitute of Supply Management (ISM) indices. Fed Chair Jay Powell will also give a speech on the state of the economy on Friday after jobs data is released that morning.
Source: RadioFreeEurope RadioLiberty, “Starmer says ‘Time to act’ on Ukraine as Europe at crossroads,” March 2, 2025.
Source: European Council Council of the European Union, “Special European Council, 6 March 2025”
Source: Politico, “Trump attacks Zelenskyy as a ‘dictator without elections’ who duped US,” February 19, 2025
Source: BBC, “Ukraine still 'ready' to sign US minerals deal, Zelensky tells BBC,” March 2, 2025
Source: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) letter, “RE: Tariffs on Building Materials from Canada and Mexico,” January 31, 2025.
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The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of Frank Kelly as of the date of this publication and may not come to pass.
This information is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security.
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R-070495-4 (7/25)
