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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 16, 2025

3/16/2025

European leaders gather to discuss European defense and security planning, Trump gathers oil CEOs, U.S.-Russian shuttle diplomacy continues, and the U.S., Japan, and UK central banks meet on interest rates.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

U.S.-Russian shuttle diplomacy continues
European leaders gather to discuss European defense and security planning
Trump gathers oil CEOs
U.S., Japan, and UK central banks meet on interest rates.
Global economic radar screen
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

It is going to be another action-packed week ahead geopolitically.

U.S.-Russian shuttle diplomacy continues

U.S. and Russian diplomats are expected to talk in an effort to reach a deal securing at least a temporary cease-fire in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to indicate some support for the idea but then pushed back, saying there are a number of issues he still wants addressed. President Trump late Sunday indicated he expected to talk to Putin later this week, but no time or date has been set yet. All in all, we believe negotiations are likely to be protracted. Meanwhile, Russian forces have ramped up their assault on Ukrainian positions and made considerable gains against Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of Russia.

European defense and security planning

European leaders will gather in Brussels for a Euro Summit this week to discuss how to advance a European defense and security agenda in the face of growing trade and defense tensions with the U.S. An European Union (EU) white paper on EU security is being formally released this week while German legislators will further consider a historic €500 billion defense and infrastructure package. Europe is at a historic inflection point in facing a challenge to ensure its mutual defense and security and collective economic interests in the face of tough trade tariffs being placed on it by President Trump and ongoing trade tensions with China.

Trump gathers oil CEOs

Meanwhile, President Trump will be gathering oil CEOs at the White House on Monday to discuss how to encourage more drilling in the U.S. But with oil prices shrinking lately, the CEOs will likely be looking for guidance on economic incentives to help them achieve the President’s goals.

Global economic radar screen

Looking at the global economic radar screen for the week ahead, it will be a big week for central banks.

Central Banks: The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Central Bank of Brazil each meet to discuss the state of the economy and decide on interest rates. This is likely to prove particularly challenging for the Fed as President Trump rapidly ramps up his tariff agenda. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady on rates.
Asia: Looking at what else is happening in Asia, China will be releasing a number of important economic reports, including retail sales for the first two months of the year. The data comes as Beijing has just finished the Two-Session meetings focused on economic recalibration. Japan will be releasing trade data on Wednesday and CPI data on Friday.
Europe: Germany’s ZEW survey is out on Tuesday. But the biggest economic event in Germany will be the ongoing parliamentary debate over the proposed €500 billion defense and infrastructure package. A deal has been reached between political parties, and the final vote is expected this week. Also, this week, the UK releases labor market figures.
U.S.: Bringing it back to the U.S., markets are looking at January retail sales numbers on Monday and industrial production figures on Tuesday. And in Canada, consumer price index (CPI) figures are out this week, too.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 16, 2025

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