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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 23, 2025

3/23/2025

U.S.-led Ukraine peace talks resume in Saudi Arabia, Trump officials to make a “private visit” to Greenland, Canada’s Carney calls snap elections, China hosts two major economic forums, and it is a heavy week of economic reports.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

U.S.-led Ukraine peace talks resume in Saudi Arabia
Trump officials to make a “private visit” to Greenland
Canada’s Carney calls snap elections
China hosts two major economic forums
Global economic radar screen: It is a heavy week of economic reports

U.S.- led Ukraine peace talks resume in Saudi Arabia
Spring is in the air in the Northern Hemisphere after a pretty rough winter. And with it comes a significant uptick of diplomatic activity globally. This coming week, U.S. diplomats will again travel to Ryad, Saudi Arabia for talks with Russian counterparts in a bid to reach an agreement on a ceasefire in Ukraine. As we reported last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin seemed to make some positive remarks toward reaching a deal but then reiterated a host of unpalatable demands on the U.S., NATO, and Ukraine – including removing NATO forces from Eastern European NATO member states and no NATO membership for Ukraine. This was followed by some of the most intensive missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian civilian targets since the war began.

One aspect of the talks will focus on how to make shipping safer in the Black Sea as a means to reaching a cease-fire. We continue to be pessimistic that Putin – who is celebrating his 25th year in power this week – will relent and agree on any peace deal.

Trump officials to make a “private visit” to Greenland
Also this week, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Walz and 2nd Lady Usha Vance are scheduled to make a “private visit” to Greenland as the newly elected government there begins forming. What exactly they are doing – and why the 2nd Lady is involved – remains a mystery at this time of writing.

Canada’s Carney calls snap elections
Meanwhile, newly chosen Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for snap elections on April 28. Carney said he needs a strong mandate to deal with President Trump, saying Trump “wants to break us so America can own us.” Carney went on to say Canada is facing “the most significant crisis of our lifetimes because of President Trump’s unjustified trade actions and his threats to our sovereignty.” Oddly, this comes as President Trump claimed British King Charles II secretly offered – and Trump indicated he was interested in pursuing – the U.S. to become an associate member of the British Commonwealth. The Commonwealth, which was created in 1926, is made up of 56 countries – including Canada – which were originally British colonies.

China hosts two major economic forums
China will be holding two major economic forums this week which are likely to give investors greater insight into the state of China’s economy and what new steps Beijing may take to try to further bolster the economy. The first is the China Development Forum (CDF) and the second is the Boao Forum for Asia (BFA) which is commonly referred to as the “Davos of Asia.” The CDF comes as foreign investment in China has been rapidly shrinking. Major U.S. and European CEOs are scheduled to attend and are expected to meet with President Xi Jinping.

Global economic radar screen
Looking at the global economic radar screen this week, it is going to be a big week with lots of new data coming out globally. Inflation indicators are going to be released in the U.S., Japan, and Europe.

Looking first at the U.S., the February personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and personal income and spending data are due out on Friday as well as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index on Tuesday. The Conference Board’s report will be closely looked at by investors following the University of Michigan’s economic reports last week which showed consumer sentiment had sunk to its lowest level since 2022.
Additionally, as the U.S. Congress struggles to hammer out a tax and budget deal via a giant Reconciliation package, the Congressional Budget Office is publishing its federal debt outlook on Wednesday and the statutory limit report on Thursday, putting more pressure on how far Congress can go cutting taxes and dealing more aggressively with the deficit.
Turning to Europe, the UK releases consumer price index (CPI) and retail price index (RPI) data on Wednesday while the Eurozone March flash CPIs are out on Friday. Germany releases the Ifo survey on Tuesday and we will see consumer sentiment numbers from Germany, Italy, and France this week, too.
In Asia, the Central Bank of Japan releases recent meeting minutes as the Tokyo CPI is out Friday. Australia releases its budget this week, too. And in China, the 1-year Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate is set on Tuesday while we will see industrial profit reports on Thursday.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | March 23, 2025

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