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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 6, 2025

4/6/2025

Trump’s tariffs go into effect as China and EU move to retaliate, Netanyahu meets with Trump on Iran and tariffs, and markets look to Fed minutes for guidance.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

Trump’s tariffs go into effect as China and EU move to retaliate
Ukraine-Russia meetings and discussion
Netanyahu meets with Trump on Iran and tariffs
Taiwan’s top national security official meets with U.S. officials
Global economic radar screen: Markets look to Fed minutes for guidance

Trump’s tariffs go into effect as China and EU move to retaliate
What a week the global markets had last week! And it is not over, as this coming week looks just as turbulent. President Trump’s new tariff regime will go into effect this week, and China’s retaliatory 34% tariffs will go into effect, too. EU trade ministers’ officials meet on Tuesday to consider the full impact of the Trump tariffs and likely move to institute their retaliatory tariffs.

We expect a number of bilateral meetings to be announced this week with the U.S. as countries seek quick relief. Vietnam has already sent a delegation to Washington, and we will be watching closely for any announcements. Vietnam has a $124 billion trade deficit with the U.S., the second highest after China, and has been hit with a 46% tariff rate. The U.S. is Vietnam’s largest export market.

Ukraine-Russia meetings and discussion
With all this going on, the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which is comprised of 50 countries supporting Ukraine militarily and financially, will meet in Brussels. But for the first time, no senior U.S. official will attend. The absence comes as President Trump continues to press Russia to agree to a cease-fire – an effort that saw Kirill Dmitriev, the head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund, was taken off the U.S. sanctions list so he could travel to Washington to meet with U.S. officials to discuss the current peace proposal. The former Goldman Sachs banker has since told reporters he believes there will be further discussions this coming week between Washington and Moscow, but he gave no details in what form they will take.

Netanyahu meets with Trump on Iran and tariffs
Also, this coming week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is traveling to Washington for his second set of meetings this year with President Trump. The two leaders are expected to discuss the tariff situation, the situation in Gaza, and the policy coordination toward Iran.

Taiwan’s top national security official meets with U.S. officials
We would also note that something else of significance is taking place in Washington this week: Taiwan’s top national security official, Joseph Wu, is holding a secret meeting with senior U.S. officials about the ongoing tensions with China. The U.S. and Taiwan are terming the meetings as a “special channel” for Taiwan and the US to discuss security issues.

Global economic radar screen
Looking at the global economic radar screen this week:

Markets are looking to Wednesday’s release of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee minutes for indications of what the Fed might do regarding the tariffs.
Also out this week will be U.S. consumer price index (CPI) for March and the important University of Michigan consumer survey for April.
In Europe, European Central Bank officials will gather with EU Finance and economic ministers this week to discuss the economic impact of the tariffs.
The UK GDP for February is out on Friday
Germany reports its March CPI numbers.
In Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will speak on Wednesday and likely reveal early views of the tariffs' impact. Meanwhile, China will report both CPI and PPI figures on Thursday.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 6, 2025

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