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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 13, 2025

4/13/2025

Trump’s tariffs continue to dominate markets and geopolitics, Chinese President Xi embarks on Asia tour, the ECB decides on interest rates, and Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

Trump’s tariffs continue to dominate markets and geopolitics
Chinese President Xi embarks on Asia tour
Global economic radar screen: ECB decides on interest rates & Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook

Trump’s tariffs continue to dominate markets and geopolitics
It was another wild week for global markets in the wake of President Trump’s global tariff plan after he called a 90-day time-out on their implementation while raising tariffs on China to 145%.

While this coming week would normally be a quiet week for markets in advance of the Easter holiday, everyone is bracing for another wild week of high-level bilateral meetings and likely new announcements.

Drilling into the week, we are going to be watching:
U.S./Italy - The meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and President Trump on Thursday to discuss prospects for a trade deal with the EU.
U.S./UK - Additionally, we note there are unconfirmed reports U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent may meet with UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves this week, too, to discuss a possible U.S.-UK trade deal.
Argentina - Bessent is scheduled to travel to Argentina on Monday to meet with President Javier Milei as Argentia is likely to sign a new deal with the IMF on financing assistance, further boosting Milei’s economic reform policies.

Chinese President Xi embarks on Asia tour
While all this going on, Chinese President Xi Jinping will travel to Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia for his first foreign visits of the year. Trade relations are expected to be the primary point of discussion in the wake of the Trump tariffs – especially on Vietnam and Cambodia which got hit with tariffs of 46% and 49% respectively.

Global economic radar screen
Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week, it will be a relatively light economic reporting week.

Markets, however, will be most focused on central bank decisions coming from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada.
In the U.S., we will see the release of Q1 gross domestic product (GDP), retail sales figures, industrial production for March and jobless claims on Friday.
But perhaps the most keenly watched economic data point this week will be Federal Reserve Board Chair Jay Powell’s speech at the Economic Club of Chicago on Wednesday as well as speech by a number of regional Federal Reserve Presidents.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 13, 2025

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