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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 20, 2025

4/20/2025

The IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings take center stage, Vice President Vance visits India, bilateral trade negotiations continue in Washington, and the G7 and G20 meet on the sidelines of the IMF/World Bank meetings.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings take center stage
Bilateral trade negotiations continue in Washington
G7 and G20 meet on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meetings
Vice President Vance visits India
Global economic radar screen

IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings take center stage
A good portion of the world hopefully enjoyed a peaceful Easter holiday, and many are taking the week for spring vacation. However, in Washington, Easter weekend was the quiet before the economic storm as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (WB/IMF) are holding their annual Spring meetings. The nation’s capital will be filled with finance ministers and central bankers from around the world (good luck getting restaurant reservations and avoiding driving downtown – the traffic jams during WB/IMF weeks are epic).

Bilateral trade negotiations continue in Washington
But unlike most World Bank/IMF meetings, a good number of trade ministers will also be in Washington this week, seeking to work out bilateral trade deals with the U.S. We are aware of meetings between U.S. officials and representatives of Thailand, India, and Malaysia and suspect more meetings are being arranged as we write this note.

G7 and G20 meet on the sidelines of the IMF-World Bank meetings
As tariff negotiations ramp up, we will be watching for the WB/IMF annual economic report on Tuesday. This report will likely help set the tone for the week and likely point to their expectation of significant economic disruption as a result of the Trump tariffs. Both the G7 and G20 will be meeting on the sidelines of the WB/IMF meetings, and tariffs will be the paramount issue of discussion.

Vice President Vance visits India
Also this week, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance will visit India for four days starting Monday. Vance will meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday, and trade, mutual defense, and security issues will be on the agenda. Modi will then travel to Saudi Arabia on Tuesday for bilateral meetings with Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud to discuss both trade and a number of other issues of interest to India, including the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine peace talks, and relations with China.

Global economic radar screen
Looking at the global economic radar screen, the WB/IMF meetings dominate the week. But there are several important economic reports worth watching.

Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs) will be out on Wednesday, giving markets a slightly clearer sense of how tariffs might be disrupting markets.
In the U.S., markets are watching for the Beige Book release along with durable goods orders and housing market data.
In Asia, aside from Japan’s consumer price index (CPI) numbers, China will announce the 1-year and 5-year loan rates.
In Europe, the ifo Survey in Germany and the consumer confidence reports for the Eurozone and the UK are out this week.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | April 20, 2025

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