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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | May 4, 2025

5/4/2025

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

Canadian Prime Minister Carney meets with President Trump
Victory Day celebrations: Russia offers short-term cease fire
China’s President Xi meets with Russian President Putin
Busy week in Europe
Growing tensions between Pakistan and India
Global economic radar screen: The Federal Reserve and Bank of England decide interest rates

Canadian Prime Minister Carney meets with President Trump
In Washington, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, coming off a winning election last week, will meet with President Donald Trump to discuss tariffs placed on Canada. We believe Trump is leaning toward lifting or at least temporarily suspending some of the tariffs.

Washington is likely to be buzzing with visiting trade representatives coming to meet with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and other senior Trump Administration officials seeking deals to get out from under Trump's tariffs. Last week, meetings between Japanese and South Korean officials were held, but no deals were reached, and from what we have heard from numerous sources, the talks did not go well.

Victory Day celebrations: Russia offers short-term cease fire
This week marks the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe – V.E. Day. Great Britain, Russia, and other European nations will host parades and festivities to mark the historic occasion. Russia is offering Ukraine a short-term cease-fire on Friday to allow Russia to celebrate what it calls Victory Day.

China’s President Xi meets with Russian President Putin
As part of the Victory Day celebration in Moscow, a number of leaders will attend in person, including Chinese President Xi Jinping. Xi arrives on May for one-on-one meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a number of critical issues, including President Trump's tariffs, the war in Ukraine a, furthering China's support for Russia, and U.S. efforts to negotiate with Iran over its nuclear program.

Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will also meet with Putin on the sidelines of the celebrations. Brazil is chairing the BRICS this year and will discuss ways to strengthen the bloc in the face of Trump's riffs.

Busy week in Europe
It will be a busy week in Europe.
- At the Vatican, the Conclave of Cardinals begins to elect a new pope. 135 cardinals will gather in a closed meeting until they elect the successor to the late Pope Francis.
- EU foreign ministers will be meeting in Warsaw to discuss how to strengthen European mutual security to counter Russia as well as how to deal with the U.S. tariffs on the EU.
- Friedrich Mertz is expected to be elected by the German Bundestag (Parliament) this week as the country's new Chancellor.

Growing tensions between Pakistan and India
In Asia, we are watching the continued (and growing) tensions between Pakistan and India as a result of last month's attack in Kashmir that killed 26 civilians. India blames Pakistan for supporting the terrorists responsible for the attack and is threatening to attack Pakistan in response.

While the U.S. and EU work with both India and Pakistan to find a peaceful solution, we note that Iran is also trying to play a role. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is traveling to both countries this week to mediate.

Global economic radar screen
Looking at the global economic radar screen for the coming week:

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions will dominate the market's attention. The Fed—despite President Trump's demands for rate cuts—is expected to hold rates steady, while the Bank of England is expected to cut rates by 24 basis points.
The European Central Bank is holding an offsite in Portugal where we expect commentary on the impact of tariffs on the state of the European and global economy.
In Iceland, the Reykjavik Economic Conference 2025 on Friday and Saturday will host a slew of central bankers who will be giving major speeches and talking on panels, while at the Hoover Institute at Stanford University, the Hoover Monetary Policy Conference will also see a number of central bankers from various countries speaking.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will be testifying before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday on the state of the international financial system. It will certainly be a lively hearing as Bessent will face intense questions about the impact of the Trump tariffs on global markets in general and the U.S. economy in particular.
U.S. March trade data will be out on Tuesday, Q1 as well as productivity and labor data out on Thursday, while the April ISM services report will be out on Monday.
In Europe, Germany reports factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance figures on Thursday, while France reports its trade balance on Wednesday, industrial production on Tuesday while the Eurozone's April CPI is out on Thursday.
In Asia, China reports April trade figures on Friday, while the Bank of Japan releases its March monetary policy minutes on Thursday

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | May 4, 2025

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