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6/8/2025
The G7 Leaders’ Summit convenes -- President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.
Francis (Frank) J. Kelly
Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
G7 Leaders’ Summit convenes
The big geopolitical event of the week is the G7 Leaders’ Summit being held in Alberta, Canada. This will be President Trump’s first trip to Canada since being re-elected and since he placed tough tariffs on the country.
The overall G7 agenda, as outlined by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, is to focus on several broad themes – “protecting our communities and the world, building energy security and accelerating digital transition, and securing the partnerships of the future.” But the real focus will be trade and how to get to an endgame with the Trump tariff changes as well as discussing the opportunities and threats of artificial intelligence (AI).
But a lot of other major action will be taking place at the Summit including a possible meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and President Trump – the first meeting between the two leaders since their disastrous meeting at the White House on February 28th.
U.S. and Chinese trade negotiations begin yet again
On Monday, US Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer will travel to London for talks with Chinese trade negotiators to try to and get trade talks back on track. The meetings are the result of a telephone conversation between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping this past week. There had been a 90-day pause on Trump’s China tariffs but that quickly fell apart after the U.S. added new guidance on preventing Chinese semiconductor chips to be sold in the US.
Two big no-confidence votes are being held
Elsewhere this week, two big no-confidence votes are being held on Wednesday.
U.S. Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Back in Washington, the U.S. Senate will continue to work on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill – as a number of House Republican members who voted for the measure are now publicly expressing regret as the bill is now expected to add as much as $4 trillion to the federal deficit. But the big news was Elon Musk’s extraordinary public spat with President Trump which began when Musk tweeted out his disgust with the size and shape of OBBA and then went on to criticize Trump – and even call for his impeachment – for supporting the bill in its current format.
We expect the U.S. Senate to move to change a number of market-sensitive provisions – including Section 899 which would allow Treasury to place retaliatory taxes on foreign companies as well as the state and local (SALT) provisions which the House raised to $40,000 but is facing a host of criticism from Republicans.
We continue to hold the view reaching a final deal on OBBA is going to take much longer than the Trump Administration is hoping for – July 4th is the stated goal – and is likely to be scaled back in order to get enough Republican support.
Two big events in the U.S.
And finally, this week will see two big events in the U.S. this Saturday:
President Trump’s birthday parade on Friday in Washington that will simultaneously celebrate the 250th anniversary of the U.S. Army. The parade will take place along Constitution Avenue in Washington.
The second big event will be in Chicago where newly elected Pope Leo XIV will address via video to a sold-out (40,000+) Rate Stadium (where the Holy Father’s beloved White Sox play). This will be the Holy Father’s first official address to the United States.
Global economic radar screen
Looking at the global economic radar screen, the big events of the coming week are – aside from the G7 Meeting – China’s trade data and inflation figures and the U.S.’s May Consumer Price Index (CPI) print.
The U.S.
In Europe, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be delivering the Spending Review to Parliament on Wednesday, revealing the spending priorities of Prime Minister Starmer’s government. It will include plans for spending more than £600 billion on public services – 1/5 of the total British economy.
In the EU this week, there are a large number of European Central Bank speeches including European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaking in Beijing. Germany reports May CPI and Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data, too.
Bringing it back to Asia, Japan releases the May Economy Watchers Survey on Monday and the PPI on Wednesday. But markets are mostly focused on China’s inflation and trade figure releases on Monday to get a sense how deeply the Trump tariffs have impacted the economy
New Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision outlining priorities
The big news of the week is Michelle Bowman was confirmed Wednesday by the U.S. Senate as the new Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision. Bowman, a former community banker, wasted no time, giving her first speech Friday outlining her priorities in a speech entitled “Taking a Fresh Look at Supervision and Regulation.” Bowman made clear in the speech she is deeply focused on encouraging regulatory tailoring, undertaking a strategic reevaluation of bank capital requirements, reviewing a host of regulations and rules passed in the last administration by her predecessor, and streamlining the review process for bank mergers and de novo applications.
Senate Banking Committee offered up provisions to help pay for the Reconciliation bill
Meanwhile, there has been and will be this coming week a lot of action in Congress. This past Wednesday, the Senate Banking Committee offered up a number of provisions in a bid to help pay for H.R. 1, The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) – otherwise known as the Reconciliation bill. But what the committee provided – totally a little over $1 billion in possible budget savings – may not pass muster with the Senate Parliamentarian as it appears a number of the provisions do not meet the strict rules for what can be included in a Reconciliation bill.
What Senate Banking offer includes:
We will likely know in the coming week what the Parliamentarian decides.
This coming week
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a Financial Stability Oversight Council meeting
Finally, we would note that this past Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) meeting (we cannot find any notice of the meeting being sent around beforehand). According to the readout of the meeting:
“Council members heard updates from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) on their efforts to enhance their supervisory and regulatory frameworks and to focus bank supervision on material financial risks. Members also discussed their continued collaboration to facilitate support for economic growth by banks and other financial institutions.
Additionally, the Council received a briefing by Treasury staff on the work of the President’s Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. The Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Acting Chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also provided updates on their agencies’ recent actions. The speakers discussed ongoing efforts to promote U.S. leadership in digital assets and financial technology and to provide greater regulatory clarity and certainty to digital asset markets.
The Council also received a presentation from FDIC, OCC, and Federal Housing Finance Agency staff on commercial real estate (CRE). The presentation noted stabilization across CRE sectors despite some continued headwinds in the office and multifamily segments. It also described actions taken by supervisors to mitigate CRE risks at their regulated institutions in recent years.
In addition, the Council heard an update by Treasury, SEC, and Office of Financial Research staff on market developments related to corporate credit, including the continued growth of private credit. The presentation noted that corporate fundamentals remain solid, although firms with lower credit ratings, higher leverage, and a greater share of floating-rate liabilities are more exposed to potential challenges. Council members discussed ways in which private credit can promote investment and access to capital, as well as potential vulnerabilities that warrant continued monitoring.”
Conference on the history of bank supervision
Finally, we note that the Brookings Institution is holding a day-long conference on the history of bank supervision in the U.S., “The History of Bank Supervision in America and the Road Ahead.” There are a number of excellent scholars and former regulators speaking and it should be quite interesting.
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R-070495-4 (7/25)
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