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6/15/2025
The Israeli-Iran War expands; Canada hosts the G7+; the UN holds a high-level two-state solution conference; and the Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan meet on interest rates.
Francis (Frank) J. Kelly
Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS
U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead
Israeli-Iran War expands
Israel and Iran are now going into their fourth day of ballistic missile strikes on each other after Israeli fighter bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities as well as targeting senior Iranian military leaders and nuclear scientists. At the time of this writing, it appears the targeting has expanded away from military targets to civilian targets including energy and infrastructure.
As to how long the fighting will continue, there is no clear answer but from all the conversations we have had with U.S. government officials and Middle Eastern experts, it will likely last weeks if not months as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear Israel will not let up until Iran’s growing stockpile of highly enriched uranium and all the enrichment facilities, centrifuge production lines, and other affiliated support facilities are destroyed.
But fully succeeding in destroying those facilities will not be easy as Iran has spent years not only fortifying them but also making them particularly hard to hit. The best example of this is the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant which is built deep into a mountain in Qom, Iran – estimated as deeply as half a mile down. It is estimated there could be as many as 3,000 centrifuges inside Fordow. But destroying the facility is particularly hard since the facilities are buried so deeply into the mountain and Israel is not seen as having the military capability to destroy it (only the U.S. has the capacity).
Overall, there are an estimated twelve other nuclear facilities being targeted by Israel and, according to initial reports, many of them have been struck and destroyed by Israeli forces.
The big question for markets will be how far the fighting spreads – specifically, to the oil and gas sector. Israel has hit the main gas depot and central oil refinery in Tehran and reportedly have hit a major natural gas facility in Bushehr, Iran. And fear is growing that Israel could focus on other Iranian oil and gas facilities.
Canada hosts the G7+
The Israeli-Iran fighting is going to dominate the G7+ meetings that begin Monday in Canada. But the current trade tensions brought by President Trump’s “Liberation Day” will also be a major focus of the meetings. All of the G7 leaders (U.S., Japan, Canada, UK, France, Germany, and Italy) plus the invited guest leaders of India, Ukraine, Mexico, South Africa, and South Korea will be gathered in Alberta for two days of meetings. There are reports President Trump is hoping to announce trade deals with Canada, Mexico, and Japan but we cannot confirm this and are doubtful they will be announced during the summit.
UN holds a high-level two-state solution conference
Elsewhere, the United Nations is holding a high-level conference this week to discuss the feasibility of a two-state solution with Israel and Palestinians. The event is being co-hosted by French President Emmanual Macron and Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salem. The U.S. is boycotting the event and urging other countries not to participate.
TikTok deadline arrives
In Washington, we are watching to see what President Trump does with TikTok this week, as the latest deadline for the company to suspend operations is set for Thursday. We are expecting Trump to again give an extension for the parent company, ByteDance, in the hopes a compromise can be reached.
China-Central Asia leaders’ Summit: Discuss ways to better coordinate on policy and trade
Kazakhstan will be the scene of an important meeting of Central Asian leaders and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the China-Central Asia Leaders’ Summit. The leaders of Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan – all mineral rich and eager to expand trade ties with China – will discuss ways to better coordinate on policy and trade.
Global markets radar screen: The Fed, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan meet on interest rates
Looking at the global markets radar screen:
The Juneteenth holiday on Thursday, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the House of Representatives being out of session this week have ensured it will be a very quiet week in Washington.
Senate working on their version of OBBA
But the Senate is in session, and they are feverishly working away at trying to hammer out their version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA). The Senate Finance Committee is expected to release the tax portion it has drafted, and we will all be watching for any changes that impact investment vehicles, such as pass-throughs and investment savings accounts.
Senate gets set to pass the GENIUS Act to give the crypto industry legal and regulatory clarity
Also this week, the Senate is likely to pass the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act) on Tuesday, aimed at giving the crypto industry legal and regulatory clarity. Passage in the House is likely in the coming months.
Senate blocks an effort to bar the Fed paying interest rates on bank reserves
Looking at what happened last week and staying with the U.S. Senate, it was interesting to see Senate Republicans block an effort by Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) to move legislation that would bar the Federal Reserve from paying interest on reserves to banks as a way to help pay for OBBA. Cruz argued that doing so would cut $1.1 trillion from the federal budget over ten years. The proposal sent minor waves of panic through the banking community but was quickly snuffed out by Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC).
SEC Chair Atkins staffs up
Also this past week, SEC Chair Paul Atkins announced a number of senior appointments. Among those named are Akin Gump partner Brian Daly to serve as the new Director of the Investment Management, Jamie Selway, a partner at Sophron Advisors, to serve as Directo of Trading and Markets, Kurt Hohl as the Chief Accountant, and Erik Hotmire as Chief External Affairs Officer and Director of the Office of Public Affairs.
Other than two speeches by Housing and Urban Development Secretary Scott Turner (who may speak about the future of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae), there really is not much going on this week.
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The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of Frank Kelly as of the date of this publication and may not come to pass.
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War, terrorism, sanctions, economic uncertainty, trade disputes, public health crises and related geopolitical events have led, and, in the future, may lead to significant disruptions in U.S. and world economies and markets, which may lead to increased market volatility and may have significant adverse effects on the fund and its investments.
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R-070495-4 (7/25)
