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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 29, 2025

6/29/2025

This coming Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hosts the 17^th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro.

Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Founder & Managing Partner, Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC and Senior Political Strategist for DWS

BRICS Leaders’ Summit is held in Brazil
QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) foreign ministers meet in Washington
One Big Beautiful Bill Act
Global Economic Radar Screen: China’s foreign minister travels to the EU and The ECB holds the European Central Bank Forum.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

Will Congress pass OBBBA by Independence Day? Otherwise, Washington is going to be very quiet this week
The Federal Reserve
The GENIUS Act

The BRICS Leaders’ Summit is held in Brazil

This coming Sunday, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) hosts the 17^th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in Rio de Janeiro. The meeting will comprise most of the leadership of original member states – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – plus the leaders from five new members: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Nine other countries have been designated “partner countries” and their leaders are likely to attend. Lula has set the theme of the Summit as “Strengthening Global South Cooperation for More Inclusive Sustainable Governance” and he is expected to significantly step up multiple challenges to Western political and economic dominance – including dollar dominance.

However, the likely outcomes of the Summit were cut down this past week when both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin announced they were not attending. Xi said he had a “scheduling conflict” and Putin is worried he could get arrested for war crimes he’s ordered in Ukraine. Not having these two at the Summit has already taken considerable energy out of the event.

QUAD foreign ministers meet in Washington

Meanwhile, in Washington U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosts the foreign ministers of Australia, India, and Japan for a meeting of the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue). The meeting could prove to be quite revealing about the future of relations between the U.S. and the other QUAD members. It comes on the heels of the US canceling a meeting this coming week with the Japanese defense and foreign counterparts after senior U.S. defense officials led by Defense Undersecretary Elbridge Colby demanded Japan massively boost their defense spending much more than had been previously requested.

Colby also announced a review of the enormous joint project with Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines, a move which has angered Australian leadership.

One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Also in Washington this week, Congress continues to battle over President Trump’s signature legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. As of this writing, the U.S. Senate is expected to vote late Sunday or early Monday morning on the bill. The House is looking to vote on what the Senate sends them either late Tuesday or Wednesday – meeting President Trump’s July 4^th deadline. Read more in the “U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead” section below.

Global economic radar screen

Looking at the global financial markets this week, the big event markets are looking at is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Forum on Central Banking 2025 being held in Portugal. We think of it as the European version of the annual Jackson Hole event the Fed hosts in August. The ECB Forum will have a lot of interesting speeches and panels. Fed Chair Jay Powell will be one of the participants and speakers.

Also this week, the ECB will be releasing the minutes from their last interest rate meeting this week, too. Staying in Europe, the major economic releases there this week include the Eurozone’s, Germany’s and Italy’s CPI prints are out this week. Germany also releases factor orders this week.

In Asia, China releases its latest PMI report as well as the Caixin indicators. Japan industrial production for May are out this week along with the Bank of Japan’s Q2 Tankan Survey.

Bringing it back to the U.S., the June jobs report is out Thursday after the JOLTS report is released Tuesday and the ADP report on Wednesday. Also out this week is the June ISM indices on Tuesday and international trade balance and factory orders for May on Thursday.

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

One Big Beautiful Bill Act

It is Independence Day on Friday and that means not much is happening this week in Washington – other than the massive, marathon wrestling match taking place in Congress to move forward with passage of The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). President Trump has demanded Congressional Republican leaders get a final package to his desk by July 4^th for his signature. Will they do it? It is going to be close but as of this writing, the Senate is about to vote on their bill and send it to the House. Our view is the House will ultimately take what the Senate sends them (or face the wrath of Trump). But it will be very close.

Otherwise, it is going to be a very quiet week in Washington this week as none of the major regulators have any important meetings or policy speeches scheduled.

The Federal Reserve

Looking at what happened last week, it was a busy one for the Federal Reserve. Fed Chair Jay Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee and then the Senate Banking Committee. Then the Fed published the results of the annual stress tests – all the major banks passed as expected. This came on the heels of the Fed — along with the FDIC also — issuing a new proposal to modify the Enhanced Supplementary Leverage Ratio Standards. Additionally, the Fed announced they will hold a conference on large bank capital requirements on July 22.

The GENIUS Act

Returning to Congress for a moment, we learned the Senate is now going to take up the GENIUS Act —creating a market structure for the crypto market – sometime in September when they return from the August recess. And speaking of crypto: the Federal Housing Finance Agency has directed the two mortgage giants, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, to develop proposals to consider a borrower’s crypto holdings as part of the underwriting process – which could be quite a shift for the housing market going forward.

We hope you have a wonderful 4^th of July celebrating our independence and liberty.

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Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Frank is the Founder and Managing Partner of Fulcrum Macro Advisors LLC, a political risk advisory firm based in Washington, DC. He is the senior political strategist for DWS.

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Frank Kelly’s Geopolitical Week Ahead | June 29, 2025

U.S. Financial Regulatory Week Ahead

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