Frank Kelly Special | July 7, 2025

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

One Big Reconciliation Bill done. Two more to go?

Frank Kelly | The cost of the Jay Powell investigation

By: Francis (Frank) J. Kelly

Following the shock report that the U.S. Justice Department launched a criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell over renovations of the Fed’s headquarters, we see several important results that could be of concern to markets.

First cracks in the dollar's dominance

By: Vincenzo Vedda

It’s the global reserve currency, a perceived safe haven and a vital unit of account for international trade – a lot is at stake.

Female Finance: the benefits of diversity

How and why we still need to do more to get more women into finance, encourage more women to invest and improve education about gender, diversity and finance.

Extraordinary forecast adjustments

The U.S. president's policies are forcing us to revise our growth and market forecasts downwards. Regardless of how U.S. tariff policy develops, enough confidence has already been destroyed to make consumers, investors and companies more cautious. We expect markets to remain volatile in the short term but in our core scenario anticipate declining uncertainty and positive equity returns for the 12 months to come.

Europe’s time to shine

The Trump administration's frontal assault on global trade will not spare Europe. But the main victim could be the U.S. stock market, not least because of the high valuation gap between the U.S. and Europe. Together with the reform of the German debt brake, this makes Europe's equities relatively interesting.

Europe: the wake-up call has been heard

More defence, more investment, more debt, more growth

EUR/USD rate is caught in a sideways trend

The euro may need fresh impetus from Europe to gain further momentum

EU Commission to support European carmakers

Industry desperately hopes for support from Brussels

Does the Fed’s balance sheet have a price tag?

Even a quieter, less interventionist Fed would only shrink its footprint very cautiously. Partly this reflects changes to the financial plumbing in recent decades.

Defying expectations

With European growth expectations for 2025 now already subdued, it is hard to imagine further bad news catching prognosticators by surprise.

Data centers drive U.S. electricity demand

After years of stagnation, digitalisation is leading to a significant increase in electricity demand

Critical minerals at the center of geopolitical tensions

Competition for raw materials vital for the energy transition is intensifying

Copper between shortage and stockpiling

A physically tight market is keeping prices close to their record highs.

CIO View: Gateway to Europe

By: Vincenzo Vedda

Europe’s investment renaissance